Every 2026 Oscar Nominee: Budget vs. Box Office

This video analyzes the financial performance of each 2026 Oscar-nominated film, comparing their budgets to their box office earnings (0:00). It reveals how several critically acclaimed movies, despite their nominations, struggled to break even or were outright financial losses.

Here's a breakdown of the films discussed:

• Bugonia (0:17): Cost $100 million to produce and market but made only $39.5 million at the box office due to a short theatrical run and early streaming release. Despite this, Emma Stone received her seventh Oscar nomination, becoming the youngest woman to do so (1:06).
• F1 (1:35): A Jerry Bruckheimer blockbuster that surprised many with its Best Picture nomination. The film leveraged extensive product placement, bringing in $40 million in sponsorships, which significantly offset its production costs (2:00).
• Frankenstein (3:14): Guillermo Del Toro's long-awaited adaptation, costing Netflix $120 million, was primarily an Oscar play. It secured nine nominations but made only $480,000 in a limited theatrical release (3:46). However, it garnered 76 million views on Netflix in 10 days, demonstrating success through streaming metrics (4:10).
• Hamnet (4:38): With a budget of $30-$35 million, this film is expected to lose money despite its eight Oscar nominations. It struggled to attract audiences, with its opening weekend gross surpassed by a re-release of The Shining (4:57).
• Marty Supreme (6:10): A24's most expensive film at $90 million, it has made $97.2 million so far but is far from its break-even point of $250 million. Despite nine nominations and Timothy Chalamet's potential Best Actor win, it's not financially successful (6:31).
• One Battle After Another (7:35): This film, with 13 nominations, is a "massive financial disaster." It cost $175 million and made $206 million worldwide, needing $400 million to break even. Warner Brothers is projected to lose over $100 million on this R-rated political thriller (7:51).
• The Secret Agent (9:24): A Brazilian political thriller that cost $5 million and made $6.1 million worldwide, showing impressive legs at the box office despite limited release (10:01). It received Oscar nominations for Best Picture and Best Lead Actor.
• Sentimental Value (10:48): An $8 million Norwegian drama that secured nine Oscar nominations and is set to become the highest-grossing Norwegian-language film of all time (11:40).
• Sinners (11:56): This original R-rated horror film broke Oscar records with 16 nominations. It cost $100 million and grossed $368 million worldwide, making it the first original movie in nearly a decade to earn over $200 million domestically (12:38). Ryan Coogler secured full ownership of the film after 25 years (13:01).

• The box office performance of Sinners was unique for several reasons:

  • Exceptional Hold (13:11): After opening with $48 million, it dropped only 6% in its second weekend, making $45 million. Horror movies typically see significant drops after their opening weekend, but Sinners held strong like a Marvel film.
  • A Grade from Cinema Score (13:28): It received an "A" grade from Cinema Score audiences. The video highlights that no other horror film in 35 years of Cinema Score polling had ever achieved an "A" grade before.
  • High Gross for an Original Film (13:42): Sinners made $368 million worldwide. It was also the first original movie of any kind to make over $200 million domestically in nearly a decade.
• Train Dreams (14:01): Netflix acquired this film for $10 million and gave it a minimal theatrical release to qualify for Oscars, resulting in no significant box office numbers. It secured four nominations (14:05)
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Warner Bros: How a $82B Industry Titan Collapsed

This video discusses the decline and eventual collapse of Warner Bros., a century-old Hollywood studio. It attributes the downfall to a series of disastrous mergers, massive debt, and a shift in focus from artistic creation to financial engineering (0:00-0:34).

Key points of the video include:

• Early History and Vision (0:39-1:25): The Warner Brothers (Harry, Albert, Sam, and Jack) were described as hustlers and visionaries who pioneered the studio system and took risks, such as betting on sound in movies.
• Mergers and Debt Accumulation (1:27-2:20): The company's troubles began with mergers, including the Time Warner-AOL merger in 2000, which wiped out billions. Later, AT&T acquired Warner Media in 2018, loading it with significant debt and attempting to run it like a utility, leading to disaster.
• David Zaslav's Leadership (2:23-3:08): In 2022, AT&T spun off Warner and merged it with Discovery, putting David Zaslav in charge. Zaslav, known for transforming Discovery into a reality TV mill, inherited massive debt and began a brutal cost-cutting strategy.
• Content Impairment and Loss of Trust (3:11-6:11): Zaslav's most controversial move was "content impairment," where finished films like "Batgirl" and "Coyote vs. Acme" were canceled for tax write-offs, sending a chill through the industry. This damaged the studio's relationship with creators and talent, leading to the departure of loyal names like Christopher Nolan.
• Rebranding and Internal Issues (5:15-7:31): The rebranding of HBO Max to "Max" further diluted the brand's premium image. The culture inside the company turned toxic, with creative executives being replaced by data analysts, leading to a damaged and "actively hostile" brand.
• Takeover Bids and Future (7:36-13:31): By 2025, Warner Bros. Discovery stock hit a low, leading to a company split and a "for sale" sign being put up. Netflix emerged as the frontrunner in a bidding war against Paramount, with a proposed $82.7 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. The video concludes with the fate of Warner Bros. intellectual property (DC Comics, Harry Potter, The Sopranos, Friends) potentially migrating to Netflix's servers.
• Cultural Implications (13:36-16:44): The video emphasizes that the loss of Warner Bros. as an independent entity represents a shift in Hollywood. Netflix, being a tech company focused on "time spent" and "content as data," may treat movies as mere inventory to be optimized for retention or even as training data for generative AI. This could lead to the dissolution of Warner Brothers' unique identity and the end of movies as cinematic events.
• The video explains that trust eroded at Warner Brothers due to cost-cutting measures and specific decisions made under David Zaslav's leadership (5:59).Specifically:
• Content Impairment/Deletion of Finished Films: The decision to cancel and vault finished movies like "Batgirl" for tax write-offs made creators realize "the safety net was gone" (6:05-6:10). This sent a "chill through the industry," with creators wondering if it was worth making content for Warner Brothers if it might not even exist (4:16-4:28).
• • Simultaneous Theatrical and Online Release: The decision to release movies in theaters and online at the same time caused "big once loyal names like Christopher Nolan [to walk], calling the move a real bait and switch that treats the hard work of massive stars as a loss leader for the streaming service" (6:13-6:29).
  • Shift in Ethical Framework: The speaker states that the company's actions showed that "Art was no longer culture. It was just inventory" (4:35-4:38), which fundamentally changed the ethical framework of Hollywood and how talent perceived value was placed on creative work.